Towards North or West?

24/10/2014

Armenia's integration perspectives are constantly in the focus of public attention. Media, political parties, and government bodies, and civil society organizations have referred to them for many times. There have been many different records, different opinions, but to the question what the society in general (the entire population of Armenia) thinks about it “Advanced Public Research Group» (APR Group) NGO tried to find the answer through a public opinion survey among 1300 residents of Armenia (in regions and Yerevan, 2014 August).

 

And so to the question "What do you think should Armenia become a member of " the respondents answered as follows: 38.4% for Customs Union[1], 24.8% for European Union, 11.8% for both, 10.1% for neither of them and 15% could not answer (Graphic 1). Respondents were also asked the following question: “In your opinion should the issue related to membership to the Customs Union be decided by the President, Government, National Assembly or through referendum? Answers to this question are followings: 54.9% through a "referendum", 18.9% by "the president", 11.5% by the National Assembly", 8.5% by the "government", for 5.9% it was difficult to answer. (Graphic 2)

The logic of the answer to the above mentioned question is reflected in following questions: "Would you like the crucial issues for the nation (such as Armenia's membership to the Customs Union, or to EU) be decided by a referendum, the President, the Parliament, Government ...". 56.2% of respondents answered through a referendum, 21.2% - by the President, 9.1% - by "the Parliament, 7.5% - by the Government", 3.4% - difficult to say (Graphic 3).

The conducted research gave an opportunity to understand the "picture" of supporters of the membership to a specific organization (Graphic 4). People who prefer membership to the Customs Union are mainly the rural residents. In the sense of gender differences mainly male respondents give preference to the CU (Graphic 5). The majority of those who opt for the CU as a desirable international organization are people with elementary education (Graphic 6). It’s interesting also to observe those who prefer membership to the European Union. The majority of them have higher education (including Master’s degree) or postgraduate education. In the sense of gender and age distribution the majority are aging between 18 and 25 with domination of female respondents.

According to interviews conducted among the population, the issue of membership to the CU or EU should be determined through a referendum. In addition the risk of pressure on the issue of membership to any international organization is reduced when the decision is made not by an individual (e.g. the president), but by the public, who vote through the referendum.